Study On Mathematical Model For Forecasting of Novel Coronavirus in India

Author(s)	Rakesh Kumar
Country	India
Abstract	This paper reveals that the new coronavirus (Covid-19) is the biggest challenge for the whole world. The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared it an epidemic. The data was collected from 209 different individual WHO situation reports for COVID-19 in India. First, prognostic models were compared based on minimum AIC, MAPE, and MAE. Then the best forecasting models were used on the epidemiologic data of India to predict the epidemiologic pattern of prevalence. New and Total Covid-19 Deaths and Incidence ARIMA and SARIMA have been found suitable and predicted for September 1, 2020. Also, the prophet model is used for accuracy and prediction of the total number of coronavirus cases in India. The predicted values are checked against the past observed values so that the two values are very close. Using such time series models we can forecast for the next 15-20 days and plan accordingly. This kind of projection helps in planning for the future.
Keywords	Covid-19, India, ARIMA, SARIMA, Prophet, Forecasting
Field	Mathematics
Published In	Volume 6, Issue 6, November-December 2024
Published On	2024-11-09
Cite This	Study On Mathematical Model For Forecasting of Novel Coronavirus in India - Rakesh Kumar - IJFMR Volume 6, Issue 6, November-December 2024. DOI 10.36948/ijfmr.2024.v06i06.29691
DOI	https://doi.org/10.36948/ijfmr.2024.v06i06.29691
Short DOI	https://doi.org/g8qtmv

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